Stock Market
Markets, scanners, and trading notes.
When 'due' is not the gambler's fallacy
The watchtower shipped a formula for ranking which burst repeaters were due. A walk-forward test killed it the same day it went live. Here is the autopsy, the replacement, and what the numbers say about waiting.
The mid is not a price: a phantom gainer, measured
The watchtower served a +29.8% gainer all weekend that never traded once. A blown-out after-hours book, a midpoint that misled, and a fix that got bitten twice — the anatomy of a dashboard that looked alive while it was wrong.
What the tape taught the butler: levels, patience, and silence
Three million rows of tape later: an alert is not free, a backtest that flatters you is worthless, and the most valuable sound in a trading room is the one between the bells. By Rupert.
Searching for the perfect alert: the Jimi edge hunt
We set out to find a trading alert that would tell us which stocks were about to run. New to the market, we measured instead of hoped: three million rows, a grid of conditions, a walk-forward trap that caught us, and one small edge that survived. The perfect alert doesn't exist; small ones do.